2020

Categories 2020, Politics, Rants, Supply chain

No No No No!

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Ran across this article yesterday.

Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for four to six weeks could help keep the coronavirus pandemic in check and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden.

…….

“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individual workers for losses to small companies to medium-sized companies or city, state, county governments. We could do all of that,” he said. “If we did that, then we could lockdown for four-to-six weeks.”

…….

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/biden-covid-advisor-says-us-lockdown-of-4-to-6-weeks-could-control-pandemic-and-revive-economy.html

Ok, first of all, where the hell do you plan to GET that much money?? Oh I know, you’ll borrow it. Nice, that’ll TOTALLY solve the economy problem…..And what about those of us who work for big sized companies? I mean, sure, my job is actually pretty secure, but not ALL big sized companies are. And if THEY start failing……that’s a hell of a trigger point there.

Then there’s the little fact that the economy is about more than just money. Money is only good for buying things. If you shut everything down again there won’t be anything to buy you moron! All the stimulus paychecks in the world won’t solve THAT.

You DO recall what happened in March when things shut down right? Despite frantic attempts to keep SOMETHING on the store shelves just about every store that was able to remain open ended up with empty shelves. Canned foods? Nope. Milk? Nope. Paper goods? Nope. Peanut butter? Nope. Disinfecting cleaning supplies? Nope. And while some of that was the result of people panicking and buying whatever they could get their hands on, not all of it was. Manufacturers are currently HOPING they’ll be able to be back to normal schedules at some point in 2021. HOPING! They are NOT caught up. Not even Kinda. Another 6 week shutdown, before they’re caught up? No, no, no, no…..

Oh, but the grocery shelves are back to normal! Right? No, no they aren’t. And neither are the cleaning supplies. Or, or, or…..the stores have just become really creative at how they stock the shelves. But if you know what you’re looking for? Yah, its really really obvious. Look, I’ve mentioned before that I have a wholesale foods account. The pricelist from the wholesaler back in March was 30 pages long, single column. Their current price list? 2 pages, double column. There’s SO MUCH stuff they can’t get right now. And what they can get, quantities still aren’t back to normal. And cleaning supplies? Look, I personally sell those at my work. There are entire brand lines of products that I haven’t seen even a single case of since this started.

And don’t get me started on Christmas. I hate to advocate buying your Christmas decor early. But this year? Buy it now. Or it won’t be there when you do go to the store. The ONLY thing we have plenty of stock of is pre-lit trees. We have NO backstock of ornaments. Barely any backstock of yard decor and blowups. No where NEAR enough backstock of lights. And the stock we do have? The selection isn’t near as wide as usual.

And then there’s the fact that the shutdown literally killed people. An awful lot of those “non-essential” medical treatments are only non-essential because the thing they treat was caught early enough to keep it from being an emergency. Or because they’re preventative, to keep things from becoming an emergency. Take away the availability of those treatments and suddenly there’s a lot more things that end up being emergencies, or that aren’t caught at all until it’s to late. And the lack of contact for seniors and the disabled stuck in assisted living and nursing homes? Yah, that killed some of them too, and set others back drastically.

Not to mention that all that assumes that we’ll HAVE a functional, GOOD, vaccine by the end of that 6 weeks. And yes, I know, it looks like we might. But might is not 100%. And no, I won’t be taking a vaccine that was rushed through trials that way. I WILL claim religious exemption if I need to. I’m not anti vaccine, they’re good things. But one that was rushed through like this? That we have NO CLUE what the long term outlook of it is? Fuck no. And I’m not the only one feeling twitchy at the way they’re rushing this vaccine through.

Look I get it. Nasty scary virus we don’t understand completely. But if the “cure” is doing more damage than the bug there’s a hell of a problem in how you’re doing it.

Categories 2020, Politics

Election

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Look, I’m not a Trump fan. He didn’t do as badly in his first 4 years as I’d been afraid, but still, not a fan. But there was no way in hell I was going to help vote in a geriatric dementia case with a California VP. Not that it matters since I live in upstate NY, and New York City dictates how the state’s votes go in national votes. My entire extended inlaw family could write in for the dog and it wouldn’t affect how the state’s results went.

I’m not any more worried by a Biden (or Harris) presidency than I was a Trump presidency. President not dictator or king. Not thrilled, but we’ll get through it just like we got through Trump’s presidency. Well, we’ll get through it if they can not sink the economy further by shutting everything down again cause COVID!!!

The general public’s response to the election has been my concern. I have friends on about every side of the political divide that you can imagine. And the divide between the news sources and media stories that each side sees, reads, and shares is drastic. To the point where its hard to tell that they’re talking about the same specific incident or happening.

And now the media has declared for Biden. But the legal side of it isn’t complete. What happens if the legal side of it changes that result? My entire FB and Twitter feed is nothing but cheering. The riots and hate if things don’t go their way is going to be even worse. And yah, outside of the idiots on each side (cause there are always idiots on every side) the majority of hate is coming from one side in particular. And its the side that seems to delight in eating their own too.

Look, I don’t care how you voted, or your political views of this mess. Take a deep breath. Make sure your home and family is secure. That you can withstand another 3 month shutdown, food, home, money wise. Cause while Biden/Harris don’t especially worry me, the rest of the political backlash has very major potential to go very bad.

Categories 2020, Politics, Rants

Tell me again

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Tell me again, how lockdowns were the only option for handling this virus.

Tell me again, how lockdowns were the only way to keep the public safe.

Tell me again, how forcing those already confined into total solitude was the only way to save their lives.

Tell me again, how its all for the children.

There were and are absolutely intermediate steps that can and should be done to protect the vulnerable. The expansion of shopping services, and other hands off services. The expansion of sick days and the ability to work from home from businesses. The recognition that some people have fucked immune systems and need additional protection. I’d certainly like to see these things continued and expanded.

But the assumption that we, as a national and international community, needed to shut down everything in order to save lives?

No.

The long term health damage from these shutdowns is going to be astronomical, just in the first world countries involved. Physical health, mental health, and emotional health. And not just to the adults. Children NEED the social interactions we just forced them to miss, they NEED it in order to learn to be better adults. We just fucked the hell out of the next generation, and that sort of thing has the ability to snowball into additional generations as those kids grow up and have kids of their own.

The long term health damage done to non-first world countries due to the shutdown? Programs to alleviate starvation had to shut down. Programs to alleviate various major diseases had to shut down. Shutdowns that mean that their efforts could be set back years due to having to start over in some areas. Shutdowns that mean that they now have to start over at gaining local trust.

And the economic, world wide, damage done by the shut down and the following various health issues? Yah.

So tell me again…..

Categories 2020, Supply chain, what I'm seeing in stores

General update on the state of things

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What I’m seeing here in Upstate NY.

Meat prices leveled off, and now appear to have dropped back down to something close to where they were before the shutdown.  However there are still supply shortages.  I can get eye of round via my wholesaler again, and the price is back down to normal, BUT, they’re only able to get about half of what they normally get for stock of it, and they’ve had to cut their overall available products list by more than half.  Products just aren’t available.   ON the other hand the sales person I talked to says they’re still running flat out selling what they can get.  People are still stocking up.

Paper goods, toilet paper, paper towels, paper plates, and the like, are still not back to normal.  They’re doing way better, but they’re not where they were before the shut down.  People are still panic buying, if not quite at the same level.

Cleaning supplies are still fucked.  If the shelves appear to be full its because the store has “spread to fill” what they have for product.  Home Depot actually issued “spread to fill” orders, take what you have, whatever the product IS, and make the shelves look full, because we don’t know when we’re going to be able to get the normal products, and maybe if we make the shelves look full people will stop panic buying.  Its kinda helping, but the people who’re looking for specific cleaners are still walking away frustrated.  In addition HD has brought in all sorts of cleaners that they don’t normally carry in an attempt to provide SOMETHING to the customers who’re looking for products.  Not just disinfectants, but whatever they can get.

Garden hoses and sprinklers are still in short supply, though that aisle looks better than it did.

Pressure treated lumber might have managed to recover, mostly anyway, but whats in the stores is still wet and green tinted as hell, its that fresh from the factory.

Appliances are still fucked, and they’ve no clue when they’ll be able to get caught back up.  If you’re in a position where you NEED an appliance, be aware that its most likely going to take months to get the models you want.

Cabinets are just as behind as appliances.  Hope you weren’t planning on redoing your kitchen any time soon.

Power tools are running short, shelving is running short, doors and windows are running short (though only in some lines).  Paint is behind or ahead depending on what exactly you’re looking for.  Pesticides are short, weed killers are short.  Generators are short.  We’re already sold out of a fair bit of the Halloween stuff and it was only put on the floor less than 2 weeks ago.

I’d previously thought that the slowdown in buying was because people were running out of money and going back to work as things opened up.  And certainly some of it was from that.  And some of it was because other stores were opening up and people had other places to spend their money.  But a large portion of it was because we started to run out of things to sell.

I’ve had a chance to talk to several vendor reps at work, as well as a variety of truck delivery drivers.  Everyone says the same thing.  The warehouses are empty, they echo, and there’s NO backstock to be had.  Home Depot, Lowes, and all the other stores that stayed open through the shutdown, sold through a year or more’s worth of backstock of just about everything in the space of 4 months.  Add in the manufacturing, and transportation, shutdowns and slow downs, add in the issues getting ANY supplies from overseas, add in that people bought out products that they’d never have even CONSIDERED buying a year ago, add in that people haven’t stopped buying those things since the shutdown hit.  The manufacturers are running flat out trying to catch back up.  If they have the people, and the supplies, their line is running 24/7, and every single item that comes off the line is going right onto a truck and sent directly to a store.  Where its promptly bought by someone and the process is repeated.  All the vendor reps I’ve talked to stated that their company has reduced their product lines to the minimum base products and converted the other manufacturing lines over to those base products, and they still can’t get caught up on those items.  The vendors who are exclusively outdoor products, hardscapes and gardening supplies and the like, have hope that once snow starts flying they’ll be able to catch up because people will PROBABLY stop buying their products.  The rest of them are just hoping that people will run out of money before the guys running the manufacturing lines drop dead from exhaustion (ok, no one’s specifically said that, and yes, they’re all delighted at the money thats coming in, but good lord people, can you please stop buying long enough for everyone to catch up??!!).

While it’s certainly possible that some manufacturer somewhere has decided to slow things down deliberately to make things look even shorter than they are, I really don’t think its the problem.  Honestly, based on what I’m seeing, most of these products, they could double the retail price of the items, and people would still snatch them off the shelves as fast as possible.   None of them WANTS their normal customers to stop buying the original choice items because they got used to something different.  The supply chain is just that fucked.  And its going to be months before things settle down.  Possibly quite a few months, as in, next year, if people continue to buy at the same rate.  Even longer if the .GOV tries to force another shutdown.  Longer again if any of the international suppliers of parts or chemicals has to shut down again.

 

Categories 2020

Dear 2020…..

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Cancer sucks.

I’m pretty sure the only thing I’ve seen him in was the Marvel movies, I’ll have to correct that.  But if you stop and think about the timing, he filmed at least 3 of his Marvel appearances, if not all 4, after his cancer diagnosis.  Even when you consider that Marvel does some pretty bad-ass CGI that’s pretty damn incredible.

Categories 2020, Rants

Look, I don’t care

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I don’t care if you think everyone should be wearing masks.

I don’t care if you think masks are useless.

I don’t care if you think the pandemic is going to kill us all.

I don’t care if you think it’s all a hoax.

 

You know what I care about?

The lowly retail employee who went from being vilified as a minimum wage drone to applauded as an essential worker in the space of a week.  The cashier who got told they were putting their life on the line so that people could buy something.  The sales floor employee who got told they were probably going to get sick so that people could buy something.  The retail employee who spent 4 months getting a minimum “hazard bonus” for working double shifts to try to keep the store open while the rest of the world lost their collective brains.

The slightly simple greeter who gets assholes yelling at him because we dare to have signs up spelling out the states facial covering mandate.

The service desk worker who has assholes yelling at her because we don’t kick out someone who’s not wearing a mask.

The sales floor employee who’s getting yelled at multiple times a days because “why the fuck aren’t you carrying bird seed any more?!” (seriously, bird seed, I’ve had more pissed off people over the lack of bird seed than anything else this past week)

The specialty department supervisor who’s almost old enough to be MY mother who’s been doing this her whole life who walked off the sales floor in tears after dealing with that one last asshole on the sales floor last week.

It’s not the fault of anyone in the store that we’re out of what you want to buy.  We’re stocking out onto the shelves every single god damned thing we can find that even kinda sorta fits.  And the company is using every bit of their pretty massive buying power to try to get us stuff to put onto the shelves.

It’s not the fault of anyone in the store that the state not only wrote up a facial covering mandate but has started fining stores for each unmasked person they find in the store.

I suppose it might be our fault for not turning away people who aren’t wearing masks, but since we carry some pretty essential supplies the company has decided they’re not going to do that.  And frankly if you want to come stand at our door and try to stop that big ass angry dude from coming in without a mask then feel free.  Frankly I’m not paid enough, and neither is anyone else in the store.

If you want to bitch about something the company might actually be able to control feel free to take it up with the corporate office.

If you want to bitch about the politics of it feel free to take it up with your local politicians.

Don’t take it out on the people who’re way to massively overworked and underpaid and who don’t have any control over it anyway.

(and yes, all the described incidents of asshole customers have all happened, either to me personally, or where I could see them happen to a co-worker.  I seriously have no idea how in hell this country made it through the last few months without some kid working their first retail job losing it completely and going postal on customers, I really don’t.)

Categories 2020, Food

One Day Sourdough bread

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The below recipe was the result of exhaustion and error that worked out beautifully.  Also note: the below loaf of bread is sized to fit into my 2.5qt dutch oven.  You’ll want to double things if you’re baking in a 5qt.

In case you haven’t figured it out from reading the rest of my blog, I work at Home Depot.  As soon as the shutdown hit Home Depot’s sales went absolutely batshit.  Someone described it as “Black Friday Weekend for 3 months straight” and I haven’t come up with a better description.  Except it was worse than a normal Black Friday weekend.  A normal BFW we know when its going to happen, we know when its going to end, we know what we have to sell, we know when we’re getting more, and what we’re not getting more of.  On a normal BFW the average customer knows that things are limited quantity and that they may  not be able to get what they want.  None of that was true of this last 3 months.  The last 3 months have been retail hell.  My pedometer app on my phone clocked me at over 24,000 steps one day.  Over 20,000 became my “normal” for most of this.  The brand new shoes I bought back in March look like they’re a year old.

And to top it off, store bought bread is no longer an option for me on any sort of a regular basis (great big long post coming on THAT), and you STILL can’t reliably get yeast at any of my local grocery stores.

So, I’ve been making sourdough bread for most of this.  Which is fine, I LIKE sourdough.  But its a time/labor intensive bread.  I have to plan ahead by several days in order to bake on my day off.  Which is a pain!

One week, back mid-May, I got out the sourdough starter to feed up, so I could start sourdough bread so I could bake on my day off.  Except that I was so exhausted that I never got the dough started.  I managed to keep the starter on the counter fed twice a day, but anything more complicated than that just wasn’t happening.  So my day off came around and we didn’t have any bread in the house, and I hadn’t started any sourdough, and I didn’t have any yeast, and I can’t do store bought bread any more, and……fuck it, lets see what happens.

(the below % are what I’m currently baking with, it did take some trial and error to get them right, but you get the idea)

pull starter out of fridge the night before and feed*

the morning of baking day:

~350 grams of flour (I use 100 grams of Red Fife Whole Wheat, the rest King Arthur’s All Purpose)

225 grams of warm water

6 grams of salt

~60 grams of recently fed sourdough starter (ok, I don’t actually measure this, I tend to just dump in a nice sized glob)

mix till reasonably cohesive and no clumps of flour remain, adding extra flour as needed to keep it from being to sloppy wet

cover and let set for 15 minutes, then fold the dough in half, turn the bowl 90 degrees and fold the dough again, turn and fold.  Repeat 15 minute set and folding a total of 4 times

cover and let set in a warm spot till mostly doubled.  I’ve had this happen in as little as 1.5hours and as much as 3.

prepare your banneton, if you don’t have a banneton then a properly sized pyrex bowl will work – spray bowl with oil and then dust heavily with flour

shape dough into round loaf** and place seam side up with banneton/bowl, cover and place in fridge

I’ve let it set in the fridge for as little as 5 hours and as much as 10, both work just fine***.  I imagine overnight would work too, but I wanted a same day loaf.

When you’re ready to bake place your empty dutch oven into the cold baking oven and set the oven to 500 degrees (F).  When oven is up to temperature take the dough out of the fridge and carefully flip out onto a piece of parchment paper (I like to sprinkle cornmeal on the parchment first), and slash the top.

Pull the dutch oven out of the oven (careful, its HOT!) and, using the parchment as a sling, place the dough into the dutch oven, place the lid on, and put back into the baking oven, turn temp down to 450 degrees, and bake for 20 minutes.

At the 20 minute mark remove the dutch oven’s lid and bake bread for another 20 minutes.

Pull out of oven and carefully remove bread from dutch oven and remove parchment, place bread back into the baking oven, directly on the rack, and bake for another 5-10 minutes till properly golden.  Let cool before slicing, no matter how much like heaven it smells.

*while pretty much everyone agrees that you can feed your sourdough starter with plain white/all purpose flour I have found that you’ll have a MUCH happier sourdough if you feed with at least half whole wheat or rye flours

**if your no-knead/sourdough breads tend to flatten in the oven instead of poofing properly you’re most likely not shaping the loaf of bread correctly.  There is a temptation with these to just wad them into a ball and call it done.  Don’t do that, hit the internet search engine of your choice and watch some videos of the pro’s shaping loaves.  Or here, this is one I like.

*** this produces a nice mildly flavored sourdough loaf.  The longer it sets in the fridge the stronger the flavor will be.  If you like a stronger flavored sourdough then experiment with longer set times.

Categories 2020, Nothing Much, Supply chain, what I'm seeing in stores

Life update

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Garden is in, and I got my first two cucumbers out of it yesterday.  Husband is still working from home, and was just informed that he’s going to be working from home through at least September.  This is one of those summers where I’m very glad for the watering system I have in place for the garden.  Dry doesn’t say it enough!  The old pool is down completely, and gravel is in the hole.  I did my math wrong and didn’t get enough to fill the hole, so now we’re deciding between more gravel, or a layer of pavers.

In the wider scheme of things:

Meat prices MIGHT have stabilized, but I’m not holding my breath on that one.

My work has started receiving deliveries of pressure treated lumber again, enough that the aisle isn’t COMPLETELY empty, but its still not enough to stem the demand.  Cleaning products are still in very short supply.  Walk behind lawnmowers are in short supply except for a few specific models.  Pesticides are coming up short in several areas, notably wasp/hornet sprays.  Tomato cages are still a hot commodity, chicken wire is hard to get.  Landscape edging is hard to get.  Weed barrier is still non-existent.  Patio furniture is selling out faster than I’ve ever seen before, and we still can’t keep firepits in stock.  We’re short on several garden soils as well.  Bird feeders, wild bird feed, shepherds hooks to hang them on, are all in short supply or gone completely.  Hose reels and hoses are also hard to find.  We’re out of buckets.  Yes, buckets.

One question that I keep getting over and over again is why are we out of so much?  In a bit of irony its almost always the person with double masks and gloves who’s asking.

Look people.  We just shut down huge swathes of manufacturing for 2-3 months.  The few who were able to stay open had to reduce capacity in order to space their employees out, or to deal with people calling out sick.  So, the factory that makes that walk behind lawn mower had to shut down for 2 months.  The factory(s) that make the parts to make the lawnmower had to shut down for 2 months.  The factory(s) that process the raw materials to make the parts for the lawnmower had to shut down for 2 months.  So, now the lawnmower factory is waiting on parts, the parts factory is waiting on raw materials.  And they’re all running at reduced capacity due to the need to space people out further.  Repeat the same steps with the warehouses.  PLUS there’s transport issues.  Trucking/transport companies had to also deal with employee call outs, and issues like the states shutting off rest areas.  AND that assumes everything is coming from the USA.  Do I  need to explain the  issues with stuff coming from overseas??  I sure hope not.  Not to mention what this does to all those jobs involved.

Look, its going to take MONTHS for things to catch back up.  I don’t really care if you think the shutdown was the right thing to do or not.  We just screwed the HELL out of our economy.  And since we’re pretty much guaranteed to have another virus spike come fall when flu season comes around I have some serious doubts as to whether it was worth it.  And god protect us all if the .GOV decides to try to shut us all down again then, cause if you think the unrest now is bad, its going to be SO MUCH worse if they try to do it again.

Edited to add: no sooner do I post this than I see this post over at Borepatch.

The largest specialty bike shop in town, one that has been open for over 50 years, is closing next week. They sold every bike in the store and had been told it might be months before any could be delivered. They couldn’t get replacement parts, either. Selling tires and tubes and fixing flats is the bread and butter of any bike shop.

Click through and look at his picture.  Yup, this is gonna suck.

Categories 2020, Nothing Much

Lets see…

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NY is slowly opening up, or at least the Central and Upstate regions are.  There are many many more cars back on the roads than there have been in months, and parking lots are full again.  In fact they’re so packed that I’m betting that the restaurants are failing at keeping tables separated.

The change has been noticeable at my work too.  Online orders have slowed (though not back to pre-pandemic levels by any stretch), and instead people are coming into the store to do their shopping.  I’ve discovered that my definition of a “slow day” has changed drastically.

We’re still out of pressure treated lumber, and no date yet on when we’ll get a truck.  It’s going to take multiple trailer loads to fill back up just the one store, and the whole region looks like this (if not the whole country)!

We’re still sold out of firepits, and are selling out of grills.  We can’t keep riding lawn tractors in stock for more than a few days at a time.  Walk behind mowers aren’t much better.  Blades and basics to maintain them are also running short.  Certain models of weed-whackers are also running short to non-existent.  Hand garden tools are running out, I hope you don’t need a post hole digger any time soon.  Cleaning supplies are still short to non-existent, especially if you want something disinfecting.

Paper goods such as toilet paper or paper towels, might be recovering.  My work has managed to have some sort of both in stock on the shelves for a couple weeks now, and the local grocery stores have managed to have some on the shelves every time I’ve been in, though their shelves aren’t full by any stretch.

Meat and grocery prices are still going up.  Though my local grocery stores have managed to have flour on the shelves now for a couple weeks.

Categories 2020, Nothing Much, Supply chain, what I'm seeing in stores

Picture from my work

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That’s the front half of the main lumber aisle. Our pressure treated lumber delivery is over 2 weeks late. We’ve got some 6×6 posts left, and some of the 12″ wide pressure treated lumber, which is located in the back half which I didn’t photograph, and some random odds and ends. But thats all thats left for pressure treated lumber. Were mostly ok on the non-pressure treated lumber, though there’s some gaps showing there too. Its not just Home Depot either, the local Lowes looks just the same, as do the smaller local places.

The cleaning supplies aisle is just as empty. We have managed to get in a SMALL selection of seed starting stuff, mostly because people are done with seed starting. We’re out of weed barrier, and weed barrier staples. Tomato cages have become a precious commodity. Garden/food seedlings are impossible to keep in stock. We have no fire pits left, and patio furniture is down to the dregs (and most of both of those aren’t available online to order either). Lawn mowers, both walk behind and riding, are gone except for a couple random models of walk behinds. Our paint delivery this past Monday was 17 pallets of paint.

Crowds have slowed down just a bit this week, but only in comparison to the last 2+ months. In comparison to normal weekday crowds for a normal June our parking lot still looks like we’re holding a Black Friday sale.